Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
