Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
